Until this year. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. That report was issued on Nov. 12. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Watch Hampton City. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Hillary Clinton (578) Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. PDF An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Not anymore. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! But it's also not unprecedented. Free and open-source. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. This county voted with the popular vote each time. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Click here, for more. 03:30. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue 2016 Election (1135) Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. What, if anything, did we miss? 2. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Jeff. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. 5. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via In communities . A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Bellwether - Wikipedia The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Outstanding. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". "It wasn't part of his strategy.". It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. 3. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Trump gave them hope. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Sumter County, . North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Do you know this baby? To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? The divisions were everywhere. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. (i.e. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The Joe Biden (631) In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. That's 14 in a row. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. 108,000 people. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. The matters that way on their minds are real. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. It gets a lot more interesting. What are your thoughts on this article? The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Outstanding. Bellwether 2016 White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Just how big is it? The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. There are 391 such counties. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. 8. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Arapahoe County. Want to dive deeper? 12. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . 4. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Still, the state's worth watching. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Their hopes are real. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Found an error on our site? In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county.
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